The pro-independence parties managed to retain an overall majority in the Parliament although the unionist Ciudadanos won the most seats.
Bankinter’s analysts said: “The electoral results in Catalonia do not clear the political scenario and the Ibex 35 will again lag behind the rest of the stock exchanges.”
A similar landscape was given by Renta 4 analysts, who pointed out that after the vote on December 21 political uncertainty remains over both Spain and Catalonia, although they ruled out any “extreme” scenarios.
XTB analyst Joaquín Robles said: “We are perhaps facing the worst scenario for the interests of Spanish investors, since it is most likely that the pro-independence group will return to rule.”
He added that the search for independence through the legal channels, instead of unilaterally, would “reassure” investors.
Moody’s believed the electoral result illustrated “the persistent” polarisation of the Catalans and it is “negative” for the economic growth of Spain.
Likewise, the US firm believes that the approach to the independence procedures will “further weaken the already weak finances of the region”, since the electoral programmes of the pro-independence parties lack fiscal consolidation measures and the focus of their political agenda is the road map towards independence.
Catalonia has a high deficit and it is the region with the highest debt in the country, said Moody’s.
According to Mr Robles, investors have learned to “coexist” with this source of uncertainty, “which will remain indefinitely.”
In this regard, the Self Bank analyst Felipe López-Gálvez attributes the “limited” impact on the market to the fact that the surveys showed that regardless of the outcome of the elections, the Catalan problem “would not be solved overnight”. To López-Gálvez, the market, in a way, “breathes with ease knowing that, in this case, the unilateral independence does not seem to be an option”.
Sabadell and CaixaBank are the worst performers on the Ibex 35, registering falls of around 3 per cent the day after the elections in Catalonia.
In addition to that, the profitability required for 10-year Spanish bonds has reached 1.517 per cent, compared to 1.471 per cent the previous day.
The difference against the German bond remains at 108 base points.
A total of 3,139 companies moved their headquarters from Catalonia to other regions of Spain between October 2 and December 21, registering in this last day 19 transfers, five less than the previous day, according to data from the College of Mercantile Registrars of Spain.
But most of these were just on paper with little or no actual impact on the Catalan economy.
During the electoral day in the Catalan region there were 19 companies that moved to other points of the Spanish geography, one of the lowest figures recorded since the 1-O referendum.
The transfers have decreased in the last weeks since the application of Article 155 of the Constitution. The days with less movements in this sense were Monday 19, with only 11, and the previous Monday, with 16.
The CEOE employers said: ”The exit of companies, the fall in consumption and investment have led to a decline in activity in the last part of the year.
“Only with a new government that is committed to legality and respect for the Constitution, the damage infringed will be fixed and Catalonia will be able to return to the path of prosperity that we all want.”
Additional reporting by Maria Ortega
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